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优秀创业者的优势
更新时间:2017/12/15 16:48:19  点击量:0 

来源:青创智库

一、投资要“投三把”

创业失败是正常的,成功本身就是个低概率事件。战略上你必须想明白——比如赢牌是系统性低概率事件,在其他约束条件不变的情况下,提高概率的唯一办法就是增加次数。

创业者在决定回报时所占的权重可谓极高,因为正是他们将预测性的东西实现出来。而投资人所做的就是“夜观天象,日观人像”,我们在乎发展的脉络和优秀的创始人,就这两件事情。

当你明白成功是低概率事件、而优秀的创业者是把方式方法识别出来之后,我们基于对很多事情的思考和认知,能够与他们碰撞出更多的火花。

每一次的失败都会让他的能力模型更加强大,我们就是要增加概率和机会,所以需要依赖于创始人的深度信任和高度互动。我个人认为,很多时候创始人的主观性会影响很多自己的判断,好的创业者的难点在于很难做到客观,但他经常需要做好高质量的决策,此时我们就需要为他创造很多客观性的环境。

为什么“投三把”,投资一个项目,公司是从零开始,要做到有一点眉目平均需要6~8年时间。一般而言,公司只要不太差都可以做到从0到1,A轮到B轮,完成2~3年的生命周期。“三把”是给三次机会,一个人的创业黄金期在8年左右,找到一个优秀创业者,连投三把,就是跟他合作十年,从零开始一路规划,把一个愿景变成可行方案,总结失败,如果三把都不行,就是“烧烧香看看祖坟”,这就是认账。

总而言之,就是用时间把运气成本降到最低,将能力权重拉到最高,用次数来过滤运气。但是得承认要有运气,所以不行就心安理得地认输,就是这个原因。

 


二、创业者如何把握时机

我们对时机的考虑权重很高,最好的时机是领先市场0.5,太早会熬不到市场起来。领先市场0.5,最重要的是对消费者的洞察,最后还是消费者是否接受的问题。

从创业者的角度,对于大势和时机,要有一个自己的判断和理解,并且对自己有个清醒的认知——大环境发生重大变化时,应该首先搞明白你对在何处、错在何处,你是谁,什么是在大势里裹挟,什么是你应该坚持的,并想办法管理环境变化带来的不利一面。

我自己经常讲的一句话——守正出奇。要学会利用新的工具把自己的优势放大。如果迎合一个市场做了一些伤害核心竞争力,那就不是守正,公司迟早会还回去的。当我们对市场变化有一些发懵,然后被市场裹挟时,一定会有些痛苦,但是当市场的潮水稍微退去一些,就会发现自己坚持的东西没有被冲垮,那时就会在市场上出类拔萃。


三、怎样把握融资、业务和运营节奏

创业者不能等到快没有钱才想到融资,要给自己留出足够的时间。手上最好有超过三个到四个季度的资金,至少要超过两个季度。

当你留有提前量,业务节奏就一定要跟在外谈融资的节奏匹配。创业者需要“教育”投资人,第一,你的愿景和对市场的定义,为什么不能失去他们的融资;第二,上一轮融资的情况,进行了怎样的试错,为何对之前的想法深信不疑,消费者如何反馈,团队执行力怎样,这就是节奏的问题。


在创业过程中,有一些会发生量变,有一些是质变,质变描述地越清晰越容易说服别人,而小的变量会让对方觉得没有得到验证。节奏的核心就是你要理解投资人要什么,投资人找到你就是希望你带来超级回报。

这就是为什么A轮讲概念,B轮就有了产品和用户验证,到了C轮只有产品没有用户也不够,你得证明你是市场上的第一名,是垄断性的。再后面的阶段你就需要质变,要变现,要有收入。


四、创业公司如何降低决策成本

对于创业公司而言,融资市场是不可控的,决策机制决定了资源,而唯一可控的就是资源如何分配。创业者最大的机会和风险,在于环境比别人好,还在于战略上比别人想得多、想得对,于是你的资源分配浪费的就少。不过浪费是必须的,因为创业是一个试错的过程——你不浪费不知道路在哪,所以创业公司真正的战略拼的是试错效应。那么问题就在于,如何试错,以及试错之后如何反馈。


优秀创业者的优势在于试错的效率。

方向是首要的,方向错了,主帅无能累死三军。养兵千日用兵一时,打仗就是在做牺牲,牺牲的就是分配的资源——你要思考的就是,牺牲后得到了什么,如何运筹帷幄,创业者面临的就是这样的决策压力。只有战略级的思考,才有一级部署和战斗性的结果。如果没有战略级的思考,就是在牺牲士兵的信任。

第二,反馈的机制很重要。我的建议,好公司做短反馈,不做长反馈,迅速知道自己是对是错。短反馈的缺点是大局观不够,长反馈的缺点是风控风险很大。在我看来,反馈得快,创业者越能冷静客观,纠正错误,而这些都会反映出你最后的功力。你的战略上比别人胜出10%,资源分配可能就会比别人好10%;而资源分配好10%,有可能执行结果就比别人好10%……这样就会比别人好很多,这也就能够解释有的跑道上有创业公司在两三年内跑得很快,收到的资本叠加迅速放大,遥遥领先于其他人。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

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