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人工智能能否撬动“互联网下半场”
更新时间:2017/12/12 15:04:21  点击量:0 

来源:物联中国-物联产业

人工智能或将成为撬动“互联网下半场”的机会。在近日召开的艾瑞集团2017年度高峰会议上,人工智能引发了与会者的期待。

猎豹移动CEO傅盛说,去年的这个时候,自己已经在思考互联网的下一个机会了。思考下一个机会与当时的危机有关。傅盛说,猎豹的收入曾经连续4年百分之百地增长,增速却在去年跌至20%。

傅盛说,这是内外两重原因共同作用的结果。除了团队自身认知升级有待提高外,互联网红利结束的大环境让全球范围内竞争越来越激烈,流量被瓜分掉,“互联网变成一个稳固的基础性行业”。他把目前的竞争格局称为“新常态”。

新常态何解?艾瑞咨询主管合伙人霍禹,把人工智能视为撬动移动互联网下半场的杠杆。“企业也好,个人也好,在遇到技术变革的时候,都有选择的机会。”霍禹说,互联网的本质是通过技术改变用户使用媒介的时间分配。而这种分配选择到去年上半年已经几乎停滞了,移动互联网大局已定。“除了挣扎和拼搏,我们企业等待下一个能够重新分配用户时间的机会,也许AI(人工智能)就是这种手段”。

人工智能究竟能给互联网重新布局注入怎样的活力?

人工智能平台公司商汤科技CEO徐立说,人工智能的核心是算法能力,不论是下棋、无人驾驶还是高考,都是帮助大家打开对未来想象的核心工具。“人工智能一夜变火了,那一夜到底发生了什么事情?大家公认的事情,就是人工智能开始识别物体”。

人工智能进展到什么程度了?徐立用3个阶段来形容。简单来说,第一阶段,人工智能要靠人工指导,人工智能只是生产力工具,正如当年的蒸汽机一样,没有超越人,难以获得广泛的行业应用。

而第二阶段从2013年、2014年开始,机器已经在诸多领域超越了人的水平,领先的是人脸识别技术。而第二阶段向第三阶段的跳跃,依赖于核心算法的突破以及打通应用场景循环等。他把AlphaGo定义在第三阶段的中间。

人工智能技术应用高度依赖场景打通,这几乎是所有与会者的共同观点。

霍禹说,尽管AlphaGo等人工智能让算法为人熟知,但他认为,算法只有应用在场景上,才能爆发出更大的商业价值。他判断,未来一两年,在更多行业,会有更多基于算法的场景实践。

霍禹用一个坐标系来预判AI可能落地的场景——AI节省的人类工时乘以单位工作里人工使用的时间即是预期结余值。横坐标是替代价值,纵坐标是人的单位时间价值,AI介入比较成熟的市场的潜力,通过延伸来体现。交通、金融、医疗、物流仓储、能源、旅游等,都已经成为AI竞争的主战场。

正因为人工智能发展不仅依靠技术进步,这也让战局中原本以为分不到蛋糕的人重燃希望。“得到”App创始人罗振宇,曾经和许多不熟悉人工智能领域的企业一样,眼睁睁地看着亚马逊、腾讯、苹果高速发展。

罗振宇说,人工智能领域人才价码高得可怕,小企业难以负担。眼看着要错过这班车了。后来,他请教了很多人才逐渐放了心。让罗振宇放心的原因有两个。一是经验证明,开发程序门槛越来越低,人才成本会下降;更重要的是,他相信,人工智能需要各领域的创业者,尤其是“一些有奇思妙想的文科生”才能打开这些应用场景。作为一个文科生创业者,要追上这次机会,就要看能不能找到特定产品和服务的精准定位,借助技术来实现。人工智能并不是仅靠技术就能一马当先。

事实上,中国的广阔市场和技术人才储备,也成为中国发展人工智能的优势。徐立介绍,近5年来,人工智能搜索的热度,中国远超美国、加拿大和欧洲。在去年美国白宫发布的报告中,中国人工智能水平已经超越美国。

科大讯飞联合创始人、高级副总裁江涛表示,人工智能的发展比想象得要快,中国和美国已经走到世界的前列。尽管江涛指出了人工智能可能给人类带来的麻烦——《科学》杂志2016年的一篇文章中提到,到了2045年,人工智能会对全球就业产生重大影响,尤其是对中国、印度等人口大国。

但也有人认为,问题不在人工智能,而在于许多人不断重复,不去创新。霍禹说,“未来我们每个人最大的挑战,将来自我们只会重复自己的工作,或者重复自己擅长的事情,因为这种重复,终有一天AI比你我做得更好。”                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

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